Sunday, January 18, 2009
"those Darn Market Makers" And Better Trades
I just finished a training session on the internet and I answered a question that I have answered 100 times before or more. It got me a bit worked up because there is far too much mythology out there about the market and how it works and who does what to whom. I am going to attack one of the straw men of trading myths.
It is widely thought among beginners and sadly many veterans alike that there is a boogey man in the closet; a little man behind the green curtain that pulls strings and levers and takes my trade away from me. This misperception was generated in the early days of the NASDAQ electronic trading platform. In the early days when electronic (versus open outcry face to face) trading was just getting started there were instances of market makers adjusting order flows to stretch spreads. They would delay market orders so they filled at higher or lower prices when the prices were moving fast. There were also some instances of prices being manipulated to hit pockets of stop loss orders that were visible on the screens. A number of lawsuits and firings and license revocations stopped that very quickly, but myths prevail and it seems that people need to have demons to explain calamities and excuse their shortcomings. The calamity is that trading skills often do not match the market conditions. When that happens please have the sense not to blame the mean nasty conniving market maker.
Fact: The market maker does not know or care much about you, at least not in a negative way. A market maker wants you to be there because with out you they are out of business. But you are not a target to abuse. You are a number, you are a single trade in a day of hundreds it not thousands of trades and the five to thirty cents your trade makes will not be more than a drop in a bucket to them. They want your trade and will compete with other market makers to get your business. When you place an order in the spread the market makers may debate whether to meet your request, and if it is reasonable some hungry market maker will take it even if the others don t want to. You represent their livelihood but you are not FOOD!
Fact: Except in a few extraordinary cases, prices have to move incrementally. That means the idea of market makers jumping up or down to grab your stop bogus. It is illegal and would get picked up by the regulatory process. The exceptions are as follows; a gap in over night trading can give the market maker a right to gap prices. A Fast Market (wild irregular trading) condition gives some leeway for market makers to catch up. Market makers can in certain cases also move prices with out corresponding price action. If volatility changes in the market and there are no active orders on the book they can adjust option prices. In that case they can adjust prices to actual changing conditions. Otherwise they can not just move prices around to look for your stop. They can push a price up or down by manipulating the bid and ask but generally there has to be stock movement and or volatility movement before prices can be adjusted.
Fact: Your stop is not visible to the market maker. Even if it is an actual order, if it is away from the price it is invisible to them. Until the price action approaches your stop (close to the money) they can not see it. Once it is close to the money it is visible but the above rules apply.
Fact: A market maker can not skip your order either. They are required to trade 100 shares or one contract before moving a price so if you place an order of 100 shares or 10 contracts and you don t get filled they did not skip you and if you had only one or two contracts fill it would be perfectly legal. If your 10 contract order was an All or Nothing and you got nothing, they they were not obligated to fill it for you. However if no orders had yet been traded at that price and it was not an All or Nothing , they would be obligated to take part of your order because they can not back away from a trade. At least 100 shares or one contract must be traded before prices can be moved if there are legitimate orders in line. So, if there is a Bid and Ask showing and you place an order here is what can happen
1. You get filled (probably there is some volume and you are part of it)
2. You get partial fill and the price moves (they are reading volume and momentum and decide to move the price; orders can be partially filled and market orders can be spilt up and filled at the next price)
3. You get no fills and the price goes up (one hundred shares had already been traded before your order showed up and your order prompted them to raise the price)
4. No trades go through but the price goes up and you do not get filled (you offered in the spread and they have no obligation to bargain- they can move it and hope you come after it).
Games:
There is definitely an element of gamesmanship that is legal. Generally the market maker will have more experience and will be better at it than you. That is not illegal but definitely painful to the rookie who may feel cheated, but if a rookie takes on the pros and loses it is not because of cheating.
Fishing:
Option trading is where most fishing goes on. Slow volume means orders come through one at a time and so there can be an electronic face off between you and the market maker. They are not trying to cheat or hurt you and generally it is the trader that pushed the button that starts the game. As stated earlier, if you hit the Bid or Ask, your order will almost always go through but, if you offer in the spread and there is light volume, it can be like poking a wasp s nest with a stick. It s like offering some one ten dollars for their twenty dollar chair. You started it. So you send in the order and it is not filled and the price goes up. Whoa, you think Cool. It s moving my way, I ll try again but I still want to get a discount, so you offer in the spread again. Same thing happens so you quickly raise your price to the Ask and buy before it gets away from you. Now the price settles back down and you are frustrated. If you were to check out the volume you would find that you were the only order and you were played. If you had offered at the Ask the first time it would have probably been filled but, your offer allowed them to move the bait which you hungrily chased. At the other end, a market maker smiles, nods their head and is thankful you came to play at their house today.
Taking out stops:
This is classic misrepresentation. First of all, as stated above, price movement is controlled. Secondly, they are invisible especially if you use contingent stops which technically don t even exist. Thirdly if you are doing card tricks with three year olds, you don t have to hide the cards really well. Look, market makers learn from experience that people are basically lazy and creatures of habit. If a stock dips to seventy dollars and rises a bit, it may indicate that buy stops kicked in. If volume increases it may indicate stops were present as stops do tend to be set at whole numbers. Well that kind of sets a precedent for the next trip to support. If you set your stop at seventy and get hit only to see it bounce you may feel violated and cheated, but remember three year olds are easily impressed and offended. When a pheasant hunter goes into a field they look for stands of tall grass. They send the hunting dog over to rustle the grass and if birds fly up, were the hunters cheating? No, they are just good hunters. Folks, this is their business and it is a competition but not a war. Businesses may fight each other but not their customers. Now salesmanship will dictate that they try to get the customer to pay the best price but they are not out to get you! If you make it easy for them by your lack of skill it is not their fault and they are not the bad guys.
I train my students to use contingency stops so that they are completely invisible to the market but not because I am afraid of market makers. I want the student to set up If Then scenarios that keep them neutral in their trading. I also show them where the traps and land mines may be and where stops make the most sense. It is simply learning to play the game and a big part of that is learning the competition. The retailer is not your enemy, they want your business and they do provide a service but you must learn to not overpay or fall for that flashy lure because the pros are not going to dumb down the game for you.
There are effectively floor cops for the exchanges and very strict rules. The Floor Governors committee has over 20 checks and balances to monitor and regulate ALL trades. No one can operate in a vacuum or under the wire. Time stamps record every action and if you suspect foul play you have the right to request a time stamp and proof that your order was handled to the letter of the law. If there is a mistake it is corrected in your favor. If foul play was uncovered it could cost the market maker their license. By the way in 1999 a seat on the NYSE sold for 2.6 million dollars. Currently a NYSE seat goes for 1.1 million dollars and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) seats go for $590,000. Try to imagine a market maker risking that investment over a fifteen cent spread. FOLKS, listen to me it does not happen. Manipulation happens and games are played but not like the myths and stories suggest.
So please let go of the blame, the rhetoric and epitaphs that so conveniently hide our own deficiencies as traders. Step up and own your skill level and do something about it. I invite you to come and spend two days with me in the Trader s Forge. I will put you through ten months of actual trading drills and you can learn to set stops and read price charts and flow with the trades by actually trading. I will make you work like a coach makes the players work until you begin to own the new skills and gain confidence in a realistic
Day Trading Success All Facts You Need To Know
Before you attempt to day trade or buy a day trading system, there are 3 facts that you need to know, as they are critical for your day trading success so let s look at them.
1. The Logic Of Day Trading Is Flawed
The logic of day trading is flawed and doesn t work.
Sure you see lots of people claim to make money at forex day trading but they don t and you will never find a real time track record of gains - we will come back to this point in a moment, for now lets look at why day trading cannot work.
The answer is simple:
FACT:
All short term volatility is random and prices can and do go anywhere in a day, so if this is true it s impossible to win.
Of course its common sense, there is no order to the markets in a just a few hours.
Think about it:
Millions of traders trade trillions of dollars and to say that you tell what this mass of people is going to do in a few hours is laughable.
You can never win longer term day trading so let s look at all those wonderful track records, that tell you to give up the day job and trade for a living..
2. Where is The Track Record?
You will see people present track records in day trading and they all have hypothetical or simulated written on them which means yep you guessed it there done in hindsight knowing the closing prices How hard is that?
A child could do it and these track records are not worth the paper their written on.
You never see a real one!
The vendor knows it doesn t work so he is not going to risk his money trading he can sell the system to you, make a guaranteed profit and you take the loss in the market. The above is what happens as these vendors trick traders with simulated track records and clever marketing copy.
Scams on the net
The internet has bought lots of great information to forex traders - but also a lot of scams and cons and the biggest con of all is anyone who tells you day trading works it doesn t.
Try and find a track record if you dont believe me - you wont find a real one if you do tell me about it, I have been searching for 20 years.
Finally...
If you want to make money forex trading, you need to trade in time frames that mean you can get the odds on your side and this means trading longer term - leave day trading to investors who are naive, lazy or just dreamers. If you want to win - get the odds on your side and do your homework and avoid forex myths such as day trading.
Learn Forex Trading
Learn Forex Trading
Almost all internet marketers have heard of forex trading or online currency trading as it is sometimes referred to and many are curious about how the forex trading system works and where they can go to learn forex trading.
In order to become a successful forex trader you need to know what forex trading is and how to successfully trade forex. In order to achieve sufficient knowledge it is vital to learn forex trading from experts. This can be done in the form of a forex tutorial and there are literally hundreds of forex companies offering online tutorials and guides.
An online forex tutorial will explain how the foreign exchange market works and will also explain the types of forex orders that are available to you as a forex trader. A forex tutorial will also explain about technical indicators and what they mean, the economic indicators you will need to be aware of and the various options and strategies that are available to you as a forex trader.
If you are new to forex trading then it is essential that you learn forex trading before parting with any of your hard earned cash. Many online forex companies offer free training and demonstrations that resemble that of real time forex trading. There are also forex trading courses available and these are also a valuable way to learn forex trading as you can refer to these course time and time again.
The most important aspect when it comes to forex trading is to learn forex trading so that you understand how to trade and how to trade successfully. The more you learn forex trading the more understanding you will have and the more success. Finding a forex tutorial or forex trading course is simple. All you need to do is a brief internet search and you will have a great deal of tutorials and courses to choose from. If you are serious about succeeding as a forex trader, then it s down to you, learn forex trading now and learn to succeed.
The Importance Of A Solid Forex Trading System
Said to be one of the largest exchange markets, the Forex market is gaining immense popularity. The possibility of earning large profits adds to the appeal. Although trading in this market is not easy, it can be, provided you find a proven and profitable Forex trading system.
Even a planned investment can often take a wrong turn. The investor has a bad day even after planning his actions. Nevertheless, this is of little concern to the Forex trader. Every trader in the Forex market knows that to keep the losses to a minimum the trader will have to follow their forex trading strategy and use proper money management. In this way, he will learn to survive the volatile investment market and make profitable trades in the long term.
The Forex market allows traders to conduct their transactions in a rather emotionless manner. This is because the pre-determined guidelines that form a forex trading system can make it easier for traders. Executing actions is now easy as there are fixed price levels of initial stop loss and trailing loss. Apart from this, there already exists a computed price profit, which is projected in the trader’s interests. This computation allows the trader to know what his level of loss or profit is and even the risk to reward ratio before he even begins to trade for the day.
Using the proper forex trading system, the trader plans his trade and makes a profit with the right moves. But on the other hand, if the trader makes a wrong move and is more likely to make a loss than a profit, the Forex trading system will show the trader that he is making a wrong move. In this way the trader is able to move out of the situation quickly and the huge losses he would have otherwise incurred is no more a worry. Trading in this way protect the trader from large losses and helps lock in higher profits for winning trades.
There are many types of forex traders from position traders to swing traders to day traders. Forex traders who buy and sell their currencies or open and close their markets on the very same day are considered day traders. There are many traders who believe that the day trading system is not worthwhile and do not give it much importance, but with the right forex trading strategy, day trading can be very profitable. When researching a forex trading strategy, what you need to do is review it by finding out the reactions of other Forex traders. You can ask any existing Forex traders about their trading experience and how they like their trading system and if they consider it to be a profitable one. Trading forums are another way of receiving reviews about Forex trading systems. As there are a number of forums, you will have no difficulty in getting the information you require. However, many professionals feel that day trading is quite profitable though it is not the easiest way to trade. If this wasn’t a profitable method of investing then how does one explain the large number of day traders who earn their income solely from this source? Therefore, if you wish to be part of any system that relates to day trading then it is necessary that you have sufficient knowledge about many Forex trading systems and strategies.
Many sites let you in on the Do’s and Don’ts of Forex trading. There are no secrets but there are things you do need to be aware of. These sites provide you information on Forex trading strategies, forex trading techniques and all other information that you may be in need of. You can also find a number of helpful forex trading tools, information and techniques are made available to make Forex trading easier for the trader.
Forex Trading - Blackjack And Poker Players Make Great Forex Traders Why?
There are numerous poker and blackjack players who have made the transition from professional card playing to forex trading and made millions. Why are they so successful? Because the skills needed are very similar.
There is an old gamblers saying:
"There's a time to hold them a time to fold them and there's a time to get out of town fast"
If you think about this saying, it's the perfect introduction to succeeding in card playing and forex trading.
Forget the gurus and the mentors (most who have never traded in their lives) who tell you that you can predict forex prices in advance or that they move to a scientific theory - they don't.
Just like card playing forex is a game of odds not certainties - but just like the professional card player, you can play the odds and win.
"A time to hold them"
By studying the cards that come out of the deck the successful card player knows the odds of the cards coming next, he's not certain but by counting the cards he knows the probability and this is true with forex.
In card playing you hold and play in forex trading when the odds are in your favour you execute you're trading signal.
"A time to fold them"
If a card player has junk hands, he folds and passes the hand by.
Compare this to forex traders - many of them want to trade low odds scenario's because they think they will miss a move if their not in the market, while others trade when the odds are never in their favour i.e. day traders and they lose.
The card player knows his winnings are not based upon how many hands he plays - but how good the hands are and how he bets only then and it's the same in forex trading.
In forex trading you get paid for being right not how often you trade.
When you feel you have a high odds hand - bet and bet big.
You will see poker players back high odds hands with a cool head and large amounts of cash and you must do the same.
Forget about the myth of betting small 2% per trade which is a common accepted figure - this is ridiculous!
On 2% on a $10,000 account that's risking just $200.00!
You won't win much doing that- bet 10 - 20% if you have the odds on your side and have the courage of your conviction.
"A time to get out of town fast"
This applied to the old west and when your life was in danger - get out quickly!
In forex trading to preserve your equity you need to cut and run.
I heard a trader once say that if you want to win:
"You need to bet but you can't, if you're not at the table"
To stay at the table or trading, you have to preserve your equity.
That means rigid stops preferably placed before you enter the trade - no hoping a trade will turn around - if you life or position are in danger get out!
DISCIPLINE
All card players have this and you must to, as a forex trader.
Even the greatest card players have to lose hands to win longer term.
However if they can stay at the table and keep betting and play the odds, they can bet big on the high odds hands and win.
Of course you can do this to as a forex trader.
If you want to read an excellent interview with blackjack player come multi millionaire trader Blair Hull which expands on the above points get the excellent book "Market Wizards" By Jack Schwager which interviews Blair and a whole host of top traders - its essential reading for all forex traders.
Finally! Remember:
Play the odds with discipline in forex trading and you can enjoy currency trading success.
Forex Software - Choosing the Best
When it comes to forex trading the forex software you choose is essential. There are so many forex trading companies all competing for your business that choosing the right forex software can be quite a difficult task. Most of the forex software products available offers live online forex trading platforms but what other components are vital when it comes to your forex software.
Key Elements For Your Forex Software
Before purchasing any forex software there are a few essential items that should be included. The most important is security and your online forex trading software should include a 128 bit SSL encryption which will prevent hackers from accessing any of your personal details and information such as your account balance, transaction history, etc.
Providing the best security for your forex trading will include a company that provides 24 hour technical server support for your forex software, 24 hour maintenance should anything go wrong, daily backups of all information, and a security system that has been designed to prevent any unauthorized access. Along with these security protocols there are also some forex trading companies that use smart cards and fingerprint scanners to ensure that only their employees can have access to their servers.
Another important factor when it comes to choosing your forex software is to check what the company s downtime is like. When it comes to trading forex and particularly your online forex trading you need to ensure that the forex software you choose is reliable and available 24 hours a day. The forex software you choose for your forex trading should also have technical support available at all times should your session be cut short.
Ensuring that all the above features are listed in the forex software you choose will help to ensure your forex trading success.
Currency Trading
by Soli Katir
Currency trading is also called foreign exchange, Forex, or FX trading. Beginners' education in Forex trading is ideal training for those who are new in Forex and currency trading. It is a must that the Forex broker that you choose is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This great feature in Forex trading is what makes this market the hottest market to trade in right now. Technical indicators are good and will greatly improve your profitability, but there other ways to approach the world of Forex trading that can be more simple but not without great profitable results, and this despite the use of fewer indicators. You, however, will not risk a dime until you have learned the skills you need to make money trading the Forex.
Learn how to develop your own successful Forex Trading style with our Elite Forex Trading Course or Forex Seminar. You really should familiarize yourself with any Forex trading software as soon as possible. Successful Forex Trading is one area where knowledge of your different traits can be advantageous.
You're able to trade multiple Forex systems and strategies. The element of fundamental and technical analysis is no longer required in this advanced way of trading and it has brought Forex trading to a whole new level. The return of FOREX trading can be very lucrative but the risk lie beneath is equally great.
FOREX trading can gain investors a large amount of money either over a long period of time, or in a short period of time. Learn how to start making money trading the Forex market within 30 days. The Forex market opens on Sunday afternoon and remains open until it closes on Friday afternoon.
Client history testimony should be present in any prospective Forex broker and plentiful to indicate a solid background with trading. Initiating and closing a trade at the right times are the backbone of becoming a successful Forex trader. FREE "DEMO" ACCOUNTS, NEWS, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: Most Online Forex firms offer free "Demo" accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services.